Why does the accuracy of signals change?
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π― Why does the accuracy of signals change?
A signal isn't magic, but a statistical model built on historical data. Its performance directly depends on how similar the current market situation is to the conditions under which the model was formed. As soon as the market regime changes, so does its accuracy.
π What determines the "past ↔ present" match?
Market regime: trend, flat, impulse movements, consolidations.
Volatility and liquidity: sharp spikes, widening or narrowing of spreads.
Events and trading sessions: news releases, market openings and closings, economic data releases.
Parameters and horizon: the timeframe and expiration date must match the current market momentum.
Data drift: patterns that worked in the past may temporarily lose their relevance.
π§ Important insight
Accuracy is a property of the market context, not the asset itself. The same algorithm on the same asset can show different results in different periods.
✅ How to use this in vfxAlert
Before making a trade, study the signal history
for the selected asset and timeframe.
View the Heatmap to evaluate the current indicator statistics.
Select signals with a strength of 4–5/5 and be sure to confirm them on the chart (trend, levels, candlestick patterns).
Adjust the expiration to the market: the higher the speed, the shorter the expiration.
Avoid trading during important news releases—statistics become unstable at such times.
Reassess weekly—indicators are not constant.
Signal accuracy is a function of market context.
When current conditions match historical patterns, the probability of success increases.
If there are few matches, tighten filters or pause.
π Study the signal history, check the context, and remember: a signal is not a ready-made strategy, but a tool for confirming it.
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